Build your own climate scenario

Then move the sliders to build your own.

Or visit each of the Learn More pages from the buttons below to understand each scenario element and produce a more informed input to your bespoke scenario.

A note on uncertainties: This dashboard provides central estimates of projected warming from a curve fitted to FaIR v2.2 runs of the seven CMIP7 marker scenarios. That curve misses those seven runs by up to 0.26 °C, and by 0.12 °C root mean square. It reads cumulative CO₂ and 2100 methane and nothing else, so two paths that reach the same cumulative total give the same warming, whatever the route. These results are illustrative only. Full ESM runs will have considerable uncertainties and a range of values around their central estimate, based on factors such as model design, data uncertainties, parameterizations, assumptions, and more. Caveat lector!

Methodology (PDF) — every number, source and calculation behind this site.